Pulse Asia's April 2010 Filipinos' Senatorial and Party-List Group Preferences for the May 2010 Elections
In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public some findings from its April 2010 Pre-Election national survey.
The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following:
- defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP);
- election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink;
- completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections;
- various incidents of election-related violence across the country;
- Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president;
- accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in 2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares;
- Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups;
- petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes;
- the Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice);
- calls for the resignation and disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and
- increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.
For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a sample ballot, measuring 8.5” x 26”, that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot. Respondents were asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the instructions written therein.
Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: +/- 7% for Metro Manila, +/-3% for the rest of Luzon and +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010. (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)
Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.
For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.
Senators Ramon B. Revilla, Jr. and Jinggoy E. Estrada maintain their lead in the senatorial race; only 37% of Filipino registered voters have a complete senatorial line-up for the May 2010 elections.
Of the 61 individuals running for senator, 18 have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2010 elections were held during the survey period. Five of the probable winners are from the Liberal Party (LP), three from either the Nacionalista Party (NP) or the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), and two are with the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD). Four political parties have one probable winner each – Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL), Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), and People’s Reform Party (PRP) – while one probable winner is running as an independent candidate. (See Tables 1a and 1b — Senatorial Preferences)